Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.639779 3.610015 4.991057 7.172137 1.067278e+01 1.634778e+01 26.890856
2025-04-06 1.557282 2.420904 3.881603 6.729556 1.269960e+01 2.627223e+01 66.337286
2025-04-13 0.979254 1.669211 2.996164 6.058197 1.416524e+01 3.988598e+01 171.354175
2025-04-20 0.713937 1.326586 2.660620 6.322170 1.892595e+01 8.029793e+01 863.788929
2025-04-27 0.562767 1.134556 2.540046 7.161924 2.868160e+01 2.175291e+02 19008.463712
2025-05-04 0.457659 0.993437 2.468472 8.278858 4.619934e+01 8.184697e+02 NaN
2025-05-11 0.365808 0.841631 2.277538 8.884864 6.865802e+01 3.826201e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 0.283475 0.678383 1.948170 8.488635 8.541881e+01 1.834164e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 0.219482 0.540193 1.619912 7.672726 9.584877e+01 1.112089e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 0.185664 0.475928 1.521595 8.194574 1.476502e+02 5.151145e+09 NaN
2025-06-08 0.158462 0.420961 1.425627 8.663149 2.303079e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.138940 0.382859 1.377320 9.555351 4.143961e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.120879 0.344703 1.313949 10.412445 8.042139e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.101454 0.294770 1.160294 9.926320 1.124346e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.084698 0.249032 1.000713 9.002716 1.344886e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.075116 0.226544 0.951924 9.576759 2.898214e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.068847 0.214354 0.953559 11.136403 1.147829e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.063718 0.204784 0.965533 13.234431 1.016166e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.057856 0.190166 0.934942 14.459422 1.770400e+06 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.051044 0.169398 0.848084 13.841340 1.792229e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.044599 0.148484 0.747908 12.431166 5.691309e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.041086 0.139330 0.726915 13.455888 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.037884 0.130593 0.703241 14.389944 NaN NaN NaN